Turkish Lira Still Falling: Trouble Ahead!

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Featuring: Michael Douville, Paul Lehr

Ezekiel 38:1-3 The word of the Lord came to me: “Son of man, set your face toward Gog, of the land of Magog, the chief prince of Meshech and Tubal, and prophesy against him and say, Thus says the Lord God: Behold, I am against you, O Gog, chief prince of Meshech and Tubal.

Ezekiel 38:6 Gomer and all his hordes; Beth-Togarmah from the uttermost parts of the north with all his hordes—many peoples are with you.

The brothers of Magog (Meshech, Gomer, and Tubal) appear to point to modern day Turkey.

For more evidence pointing to modern day Turkey, see the link below.

https://godinanutshell.com/2017/08/08/ezekiel-38-who-are-meshech-tubal-gomer-beth-togarmah/

TurkeyTrouble

https://michaeldouville.com

Michael Douville is a syndicated writer for the Wall St. Greek.

Capital is the Life Blood of Business. When Credit is readily available, expansion of existing facilities to increase production becomes possible. With new production, employment expands, a ripple effect and a virtuous spiral starts spreading throughout the Economy. Optimism and Hope prevails as the outlook for the future brightens! Hope and Optimism are being crushed in Turkey!

Monday August 27, 2018, Turkey’s 10 year Bond closed over 21%.  These rates spell doom for the Turkey.

Commercial debt in Turkey is estimated as $330 Billion US Dollars; Us Dollars have become a very precious commodity. The Turkish Lira has been declining for several years, but the US Dollar index DXY seems to have stopped declining and bottomed at 88.5 in February of this year and has been flirting with 97 just 6 months later; a technical target of 103.8 has been suggested by several analysts. The strategy of borrowing in a declining currency and gambling that the decline will hold until time for  repayment has backfired on all of the Emerging Market debtors; Turkey has also lost that bet!  Not only has the Turkish Currency declined, economic conditions have deteriorated swiftly causing a lack of confidence which then results in a Credit Risk Premium for new debt.

The unfortunate reality is Corporate and Sovereign Debt is never retired, just Refinanced; this negative loop has driven rates higher, unsustainably higher.  Monday August 27, 2018, Turkey’s 10 year Bond closed over 21%.  These rates spell doom for the Turkey.

Business will certainly suffer as Credit becomes illusive.  Employment will suffer and Optimism will die. Compounding the loss of credit is the Currency Inflation that will transform any imported Goods or Services such as Oil, electrical and machinery spare parts, medicine, iron and steel plastics, fertilizer, and many industrial components into extremely expensive items; the Turkish Lira has lost 40% this year alone. This currency inflation will affect the populace as the Currency Inflation devastates their buying power. If shoes and jeans, bread and butter, antibiotics and insulin become HYPER EXPENSIVE, expect civil unrest!

 

 

Turkey has the real possibility of defaulting on it’s debt! Planned, intentional? Probably not! It really does not matter.  Turkey will look for new allies to extend crucial new credit such as Russia and China. New Business allies often become new military allies; overtures to other previously unthinkable Middle East nations such as Iran become thinkable.  Turmoil may be on the Horizon.

Learn the lessons from Turkey! Debt eventually overwhelms everyone and everything! Inflation, even currency inflation, raises the price of real things. Therefore, invest in REAL things, get out of personal debt,  use investment debt judiciously and preferably use a fixed rate. Review your reserves and stockpile things that might become difficult to buy if Turmoil comes to our shores! Maintain and extend cash levels to weather an extended storm!

https://paulthepoke.com/2018/08/13/turkey-sovereign-systemic-trouble/

https://michaeldouville.com

 

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Paul Lehr

About Paul Lehr

Paul Lehr is a Speech Pathologist and home health provider. The majority of his work focuses on swallowing disorders in neurologically impaired patients. He has been a business owner for the past 20+ years. Paul earned his BS in Speech Pathology and Audiology from Oklahoma State University. His MA was completed in Speech Pathology at Oklahoma State University. When Paul’s son was born prematurely in 2003, there was lots of support from family and friends. Keeping up with phone calls was too much. So he provided e-mails with updates on health and well-being. In time, his son was healthy and came home. The e-mails stopped but Paul was encouraged to keep writing. Three years later, Paul was asked to assist in writing a Sunday school curriculum. The lessons were well received by the local body and on the church website. Again, he was encouraged to keep writing. Next, Paul taught a Sunday School class for junior high and high school students. He would share notes with others from the class he was teaching. In 2010, a young man at a local church encouraged Paul to start a blog. The website focuses on topical studies such as creation, God’s Appointed Holidays and Feasts, the Gospel of Jesus Christ, end times prophecy, ancient Hebrew cultural customs, the Prophet Isaiah, and various topical studies. Three years later, Paul’s 10 year old son told me, “Dad, you need to do updates on how the news is tied to the Bible.” The “Trend Update” was born. In the spring of 2016, a friend and fellow Boy Scout father encouraged Paul to start a YouTube channel. His friend thought it was a natural fit considering the content and subscribers from the website. God’s prophetic words have reached millions in over 190 countries. Isaiah 55:11 So will My word be which goes forth from My mouth; it will not return to Me empty, without accomplishing what I desire, and without succeeding in the matter for which I sent it. That same Boy Scout father would later introduce Paul to the movies of Trey Smith and the God in a Nutshell Project… Guest speak and presenter duties have focused on the topics of the Gospel of Jesus Christ in God’s Appointed Spring Feasts, Mystery Babylon, the antichrist, Ezekiel 38-39, and current events related to Bible prophecy. At this time, Paul would like to encourage each individual to learn about who God is. Because one way or another, we are all eternal. The issue is our destiny. Welcome to PaulthePoke and www.paulthepoke.com
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