Prices Rising in Turkey, Trouble Ahead

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The Turmoil will not start in the United States, but it will reach our shores.  The warnings are moving from inevitable Global Turmoil to Imminent Global Turmoil!

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The Catalyst will not start in the Equity Markets, but in the Credit and Debt Markets of the World. The Debt Markets dwarf the Equity Markets by a factor of at least 20; the Credit Market is enormous!!  Although the Turmoil will not start in the US, the US Dollar will be the cause! In an effort to Save the World, the Central Bankers reduced rates to zero or below and encouraged borrowing; encouraged squander and massive, pervasive Debt! Global rates have risen from 0.1% to over 3.0% in the US. A thirty fold increase! Thirty times more interest; thirty times more tax money to service the debt. To make matters worse, a gamble was taken; betting the US Dollar would indefinitely decline in value and Debt could be rolled over in cheaper and cheaper Dollars. Historical Cycles were ignored; the Day of Reckoning is coming as the Dollar has reversed and is now getting stronger and stronger. The equation of local currency vs the US Dollar is tipping. Not only is the payment rate trending higher, more local currency is needed to buy a US Dollar; a lot more!

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Not only Debt repayment will cause Turmoil, but Imports are typically expressed in International measures which is typically the US Dollar. Energy costs will skyrocket in Argentina and Turkey as their respective currencies decline vis-a-vis the US Dollar.  Oil and refined petroleum Products will become very expensive and cause hardship on the local populations. Medicine, machine parts, electronics, replacement parts will all become expensive demanding more and more of free cash flow and eventually a breaking point!

Obviously, as more and more Capital is diverted to servicing Debt and rising costs, the Economy will suffer. It will become a Negative Feed Loop Spiral! Eventually, Debt will be Defaulted affecting the Pension Funds, Hedge Funds, Banks, Mutual Funds, Annuities, Sovereign Wealth Funds, and even small family reserves. Collateral Damage will be a Contagion as Peter can no longer pay Paul who then cannot pay Mark!

Bonds will face not only Market Risk as Interest Rates rise causing a relentless decline in value, but also Credit Risk as Defaults rise and credit Quality lowers.  It is time to review holdings. It is time to re-allocate. The US Dollar cycles; it will trend lower again. Things and Real Assets will rise substantially in the US like they are now in Turkey and India. Real Things should be accumulated now while our Dollar is high. Commodities such as copper, aluminum, steel, asphalt, agriculture, farms, lumber, and residential rentals can be slowly bought. Cash flowing rentals contain these basic materials and will not only protect their value in the future, but protect the owner with an alternative cash stream when Turmoil reaches our shores.

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Paul Lehr

About Paul Lehr

Paul Lehr is a Speech Pathologist and home health provider. The majority of his work focuses on swallowing disorders in neurologically impaired patients. He has been a business owner for the past 20+ years. Paul earned his BS in Speech Pathology and Audiology from Oklahoma State University. His MA was completed in Speech Pathology at Oklahoma State University. When Paul’s son was born prematurely in 2003, there was lots of support from family and friends. Keeping up with phone calls was too much. So he provided e-mails with updates on health and well-being. In time, his son was healthy and came home. The e-mails stopped but Paul was encouraged to keep writing. Three years later, Paul was asked to assist in writing a Sunday school curriculum. The lessons were well received by the local body and on the church website. Again, he was encouraged to keep writing. Next, Paul taught a Sunday School class for junior high and high school students. He would share notes with others from the class he was teaching. In 2010, a young man at a local church encouraged Paul to start a blog. The website focuses on topical studies such as creation, God’s Appointed Holidays and Feasts, the Gospel of Jesus Christ, end times prophecy, ancient Hebrew cultural customs, the Prophet Isaiah, and various topical studies. Three years later, Paul’s 10 year old son told me, “Dad, you need to do updates on how the news is tied to the Bible.” The “Trend Update” was born. In the spring of 2016, a friend and fellow Boy Scout father encouraged Paul to start a YouTube channel. His friend thought it was a natural fit considering the content and subscribers from the website. God’s prophetic words have reached millions in over 190 countries. Isaiah 55:11 So will My word be which goes forth from My mouth; it will not return to Me empty, without accomplishing what I desire, and without succeeding in the matter for which I sent it. That same Boy Scout father would later introduce Paul to the movies of Trey Smith and the God in a Nutshell Project… Guest speak and presenter duties have focused on the topics of the Gospel of Jesus Christ in God’s Appointed Spring Feasts, Mystery Babylon, the antichrist, Ezekiel 38-39, and current events related to Bible prophecy. At this time, Paul would like to encourage each individual to learn about who God is. Because one way or another, we are all eternal. The issue is our destiny. Welcome to PaulthePoke and www.paulthepoke.com
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